ITIC Americas 2024 | Travel risk deep dive
Seth Krummrich of Global Guardian went in-depth on the risks facing travellers around the world
The ITIJ team have been reporting live from ITIC Americas in Panama this week (5 March 2024) sharing the discussions that took place at the conference. Read all reports
Seth Krummrich, Vice President of Client Risk Management at Global Guardian, started his talk by considering the 2024 threat landscape, and said businesses will face a series of interconnected challenges this year.
The era of worldwide business operations in a secure and stable environment is ending with the post-Cold War order, he warned, pointing out that conflicts are emerging, escalating, or protracting in Africa, the Middle East, and Ukraine. He added that interstate conflict is directly impacting the commercial sector and that various drivers of civil unrest are converging.
Krummrich went on to say that the Russia-Ukraine and Israel-Hamas conflicts have demonstrated the fragility of the unipolar moment, and that active and potential global conflict zones include:
- Ukraine-Russia
- The Middle East conflagration
- The Western Balkans
- Sahel
- The Democratic Republic of the Congo
- China-Taiwan
- The Korean Peninsula.
Krummrich went on to consider state competition and commerce and said the main concerns are: Russia, China, Iran versus international order; Houthi attacks in the Red Sea disrupting 12% of global shipping; economic warfare and sanctions.
Krummrich then spoke about the price of instability and said that unrest has caused protests across Europe and the Middle East – shutting down transit, halting business operations and damaging assets – and that state-backed competition pushes out competition and the cost of adjustment to new supply chains. Sanctions and intellectual property (IP) theft, he said, are now tools of state competition. He added that the free navigation of the seas is in peril.
Krummrich went on to look at problems in Europe such as the farmer protests across the region, Ukrainian food entering the market undercutting European Union agricultural sector profits, and the internationalisation of nationalist movements. He added that Iran is using its network of nearby proxies to pressure a US exit from the region, that there is chronic instability in Africa; and extreme narcoterrorism in Mexico.
He said Mexico is known for its powerful cartels which include violent gangs, drug trafficking, extortion, homicide, and kidnappings (more than 200 a day).
He said that in Ecuador there has been a gang reckoning. President Noboa issued a decree declaring multiple organised crime groups as “terrorist organisations and belligerent”. Over 1,500 people have been arrested since the crackdown began, and over 200 are facing terrorism charges.
The key takeaway, Krummrich said, is that there are trends away from globalisation that will have negative consequences for international business. Conflict, climate and civil unrest feed into each other with destabilising effects. Conflict is on the rise globally. Interstate conflict is taking on a commercial character.