Global travel figures to surpass pre-pandemic levels in 2024
IATA forecasts that Asia-Pacific will continue to lag behind the rest of the world due to restrictive Covid rules in the region’s largest market, China
The International Air Transport Association (IATA) has said that it expects overall traveller numbers to reach four billion in 2024, exceeding pre-Covid levels at 103 per cent of the 2019 total.
IATA says that in 2021, overall traveller numbers (including both domestic and international travel) was 47 per cent of 2019 levels. This is expected to improve to 83 per cent in 2022, 94 per cent in 2023, 103 per cent in 2024 and 111 per cent in 2025, based on current trajectories.
Domestic traveller numbers for 2021 were 61 per cent of 2019 levels. This is expected to improve to 93 per cent in 2022, 103 per cent in 2023, 111 per cent in 2024 and 118 per cent in 2025.
International travel remains on course but continues to recover at a slower rate than domestic flights. International traveller numbers were at 27 per cent of 2019 levels in 2021. This is expected to improve to 69 per cent in 2022, 82 per cent in 2023, 92 per cent in 2024 and 101 per cent in 2025 based on current forecasts.
Near-term forecasts are slightly more optimistic compared with November 2021, due to the progressive relaxation of, or elimination of travel restrictions in many markets. This has seen improvements to the North Atlantic and intra-European markets already. However, the Asia-Pacific region is expected to continue to lag behind, with the region’s largest market, China, not expected to relax its Covid border measures in the near future.
Covid restrictions remain the key limit on passenger numbers
Domestic figures are slightly more pessimistic than in November, as recovery lags in many markets. While the US and Russian domestic markets have recovered, others such as China, Canada, Japan and Australia have not followed the same path.
Willie Walsh, IATA’s Director General, said: “The trajectory for the recovery in passenger numbers from Covid-19 was not changed by the Omicron variant. People want to travel. And when travel restrictions are lifted, they return to the skies. There is still a long way to go to reach a normal state of affairs, but the forecast for the evolution in passenger numbers gives good reason to be optimistic.”
He added: “The biggest and most immediate drivers of passenger numbers are the restrictions that governments place on travel. Fortunately, more governments have understood that travel restrictions have little to no long-term impact on the spread of a virus. And the economic and social hardship caused for very limited benefit is simply no longer acceptable in a growing number of markets.”
Many regions will not fully recover until 2024 or 2025
North America has shown resilience in 2021, with traffic to, from and across the continent continuing to perform strongly as the US domestic market returns to pre-crisis levels, alongside improvements in international travel. Passenger numbers are expected to reach 94 per cent of 2019 levels this year, and full recovery is expected in 2023 (102 per cent).
Likewise, Latin America’s passenger aviation market has been relatively resilient throughout the pandemic, with limited restrictions and dynamic passenger flows within the region and to North America. 2019 passenger figures due to be surpassed in 2023 in Central America, 2024 in South America, and 2025 in the Caribbean.
The intra-European market is expected to reach 86 per cent of 2019 passenger figures for total passengers travelling to, from and throughout Europe this year, with a full recovery also expected in 2024 (105 per cent).
Africa’s passenger traffic is likely to remain somewhat weaker in the near-term, due to slow progress in vaccine rollouts, and the more severe impact of the crisis on developing economies. Like the Caribbean, passenger figures are only expected to surpass pre-crisis levels in 2025.
The Middle East’s focus on long-haul connectivity is also expected to result in a slower recovery, as reflected by the slower return of passengers to international flights. Passenger levels are expected to reach 81 per cent of pre-crisis levels in 2022, and only surpass them in 2025.
Asia-Pacific is expected to have the weakest recovery of all global regions, with passenger numbers to, from and within the region only forecast to reach 68 per cent of 2019 figures this year, and only being surpassed in 2025, primarily due to the slow recovery of international traffic in the region.
“In general, we are moving in the right direction, but there are some concerns,” said Walsh. “Asia-Pacific is the laggard of the recovery. While Australia and New Zealand have announced measures to reconnect with the world, China is showing no signs of relaxing its zero-Covid strategy. The resulting localized lock-downs in its domestic market are depressing global passenger numbers even as other major markets like the US are largely back to normal.”
The latest forecast does not cover the fallout of the Russian invasion of Ukraine
However, IATA says that the forecast does not factor in the potential impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which began just under a week ago on 24 February. The war has already caused noticeable flight disruption across much of the northern hemisphere, as Canada and most European nations banned Russian aircraft from entering their airspace, and Russia responded in kind.
IATA said: “In general, air transport is resilient against shocks and this conflict is unlikely to impact the long-term growth of air transport. It is too early to estimate what the near-term consequences will be for aviation, but it is clear that there are downside risks, in particular in markets with exposure to the conflict.”
Factors which IATA said could affect the impact of the conflict included the geographic extent, severity and duration of sanctions and airspace closures, with the impact most heavily felt in Russia, Ukraine and neighbouring areas.
IATA says the impact on airline costs as a result of fluctuations in energy prices and rerouting of regular flights to avoid Russian airspace could also have broader implications, with consumer confidence and economic activity likely to be impacted ‘even outside Eastern Europe’.
Pre-Covid, Russia was the 11th largest market for air transport services in terms of passenger numbers – however this also included its substantial domestic market. Ukraine ranked 48.