New research finds death rate of Covid-19 is 1.38 per cent
A new analysis provides comprehensive Covid-19 hospitalisation and death rate estimates, enabling countries to best prepare
The analysis, by a team of international researchers, used 3,665 cases from mainland China to estimate the proportion of cases likely to be severe enough to require hospitalisation. The researchers estimated the average time between a person displaying symptoms and dying by analysing 24 deaths in Hubei Province, and estimated average recovery time using data from 2,010 international cases, of which 169 people recovered, while death rates from confirmed cases were estimated using data on 44,672 cases in mainland China.
In order to estimate death rates relevant to the wider population, the researchers used data from 689 people repatriated from Wuhan to other countries and 3,711 people quarantined onboard the cruise liner Diamond Princess.
The findings unearthed were that the greatest number of severe cases, requiring hospitalisation, were in people in their 50s (222 out of 790 cases). Once the researchers had adjusted for the fact that many milder cases will have gone undiagnosed, the hospitalisation rate was found to be 8.2 per cent, compared with an estimated 18.4 per cent in the most at-risk group, the over-80s (51 out of 76 cases before adjustment).
The researchers used data from 689 people repatriated from Wuhan to other countries and 3,711 people quarantined onboard the cruise liner Diamond Princess
The researchers also found that 154 out of 743 people in their 40s had severe symptoms, whereas 133 out of 263 people in their 70s had severe symptoms, but the adjusted hospitalisation rates were again found to be wider apart – 4.3 per cent for 40-to 49-year-olds compared with 16.6 per cent for 70 to 79-year-olds. For those in their 60s, 201 out of 560 cases were found to be severe, and the adjusted hospitalisation rate was 11.8 per cent.
For younger age groups, hospitalisation rates were found to be lower. For example, the researchers found that 3.4 per cent of people in their 30s are likely to be hospitalised (while the unadjusted number of severe cases was 124 out of 733 cases), whereas for people in their 20s the rate is likely to be 1.0 per cent (49 out of 437 cases before adjustment). For those aged 10 to 19, there was only one severe case out of 50 and the hospitalisation rate was estimated at 0.04 per cent. None of the 13 cases analysed in the under-10s were severe.
The average time between the first recorded symptoms and death from Covid-19 was estimated to be 17.8 days, while recovering from the disease was estimated to take slightly longer, with patients being discharged from hospital after an average of 22.6 days.
The researchers discovered that most people will recover, even from severe symptoms, with death rates from confirmed cases estimated at 1.38 per cent across all age groups. The proportion of all people infected who die from the disease is estimated to be at 0.66 per cent, but the risk of death is much higher in older age groups – 0.031 per cent of people in their 20s are estimated to die, compared with 7.8 per cent of those aged over 80.