Natural disaster losses below average
Global natural disaster losses during the first half of 2015, from both an economic and insured loss perspective, were each below the 10-year (2005-2014) average, according to data from Impact Forecasting. Preliminary data determined that economic losses were US$46 billion, down 58 per cent from the 10-year average of $107 billion, and insured losses were $15 billion, down 47 per cent from the 10-year average of $28 billion.
The percentage of global economic losses that were covered by insurance (including both private insurers and government-sponsored programs) was 31 per cent. This is slightly above the 10-year average of 27 per cent because the majority of the losses occurred in regions with higher insurance penetration.
By contrast, around two per cent of the multi-billion-dollar economic loss from the Nepal earthquake was covered by insurance. Statistics like this show how catastrophe models can play a role in helping the insurance industry to better understand these risks and seek ways to grow insurance penetration in underserved regions.
The severe thunderstorm peril was the costliest disaster type, comprising 33 per cent of the economic loss and 49 per cent of the insured loss. Most of the costs were attributed to strong convective thunderstorm events that prompted widespread hail, damaging straight-line winds, tornadoes, and major flash flooding in the United States during the months of April, May and June.
A clear majority (73 per cent) of the insured losses were sustained in the United States due to an active winter season combined with numerous spring severe convective storm events. Asia Pacific was second with 14 per cent and Europe, Middle East & Africa was third with 11 per cent of the insured loss.
Steve Bowen, associate director and meteorologist with Aon Benfield’s Impact Forecasting team, said: “The first half of 2015 was the quietest on an economic and insured loss basis since 2006. Despite having some well-documented disaster events in the United States, Asia Pacific and Europe, it was a largely manageable initial six months of the year for governments and the insurance industry. Looking ahead to the rest of 2015, the continued strengthening of what could be the strongest El Nino in nearly two-decades is poised to have far-reaching impacts around the globe. How that translates to disaster losses remains to be seen, but something to keep a close eye on in the coming months.”