Life expectancy rises
According to new research published in the UK’s Lancet medical journal, global life expectancy is climbing, but health problems are also on the rise
The research shows that over the last 25 years, life expectancy has risen by an average of six years for both men and women; analysis of injuries and illnesses in 188 different countries suggests that a primary driver of this rise is a decline in deaths caused by conditions such as HIV/AIDS and malaria. However, people are also living for significantly longer periods with other long-term illnesses and disabilities – what experts call ‘healthy life expectancy’, i.e. the number of years lived in good health, is rising slower than overall life expectancy, with illness and disability exacting a heavier toll on lives than before.
Average global life expectancy at birth for both men and women was 65.3 years in 1990, and rose to 71.5 years by 2013 – healthy life expectancy, however, rose from 56.9 years in 1990 to 62.3 years. According to the research, the majority of global deaths are now caused by heart disease, strokes and lower respiratory infections.
The country with the highest average healthy life expectancy was Japan, with 73.4 years, while Lesotho registered the lowest, with only 42 years. Some countries, meanwhile, showed no change in healthy life expectancy over the past two decades – including Belize, Botswana and Syria – and some even showed a drop in healthy life expectancy – these countries included Belarus, Paraguay and South Africa. The study’s figures also showed strong regional variations in healthy life expectancy; for example, Cambodians born in 2013 could expect healthy life expectancy of around 57.5 years, and Laotians born in the same year could expect around 58.1 years. People born in Thailand and Vietnam, however, both of which are near the previous two countries, could expect almost 67 years of comparatively good health.
“The world has made great progress in health, but now the challenge is to invest in finding more effective ways of preventing or treating the major causes of illness and disability,” commented Professor Theo Vos, of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington, US, who is the lead author of the study.
In other global health news, recent population projections from the United Nations (UN) have suggested that the Earth’s population will likely exceed 11 billion by the end of this century – currently, the population stands at approximately 7.3 billion – and while the global population is actually growing at a slightly lower rate now (1.18 per cent per year) than in recent years (1.24 per cent annually), continued growth, and the rising number of people living longer, are likely to create many new and lingering challenges for healthcare agencies around the world.
John Wilmoth, director of the UN’s population division, however, urges caution and nuance when interpreting these figures; for instance, primary drivers of population growth are rapidly declining global child mortality, as well as increased life expectancy, which should be seen as achievements. “That’s what’s driving most of this,” Wilmoth said. “Sometimes people forget to see this as a sign of our success.” He went on to say that the numbers are not in and of themselves the problem – the fact that of the current 7.3 billion people on this planet, approximately one billion use the most resources, however, is. “It’s not a simple question of human numbers,” he said. “If you want to diagnose the problems, look at the rate of human consumption.”