The report was released on 1 May and estimates the general insurance losses due to Covid-19 in the US and UK alone to be between US$32 billion and $80 billion respectively.
The report states: “This report has been prepared in order to provide a framework for (re)insurers to be able to assess relative impacts by the line and geography. Whilst this focusses on selected high impact lines in the US and the UK, this framework can be extended to other classes and geographies as required.”
The most ‘optimistic’ scenario, in which we return to a pre-Covid-19 state after three months of social distancing, would mean $11 billion of insured losses, while a ‘moderate’ scenario of six months of social distancing would mean a loss of $32 billion.
However, were we to socially distance for a year under a ‘severe’ scenario, this would result in a loss of $80 billion, or $140 billion in an ‘extreme’ scenario, the report states.
Alice Underwood, Global Leader at WTW, said: “Beyond its devastating human cost, the Covid-19 pandemic has swiftly upended economic activity around the world. At this point, it appears that the industrywide level of general insurance loss could exceed that resulting from the 2001 World Trade Center event.
“Given the potential scale and systemic nature of pandemic loss, talks about the need for some sort of government backstop to address future pandemic risks have already begun.”