Though we’re approaching only the fourth (as I write) month of Donald Trump’s second US presidency, his administration has already been catching hell, especially from its closest neighbours – Canada and Mexico – for its questionable demands and treatment of former friends.    
 
Most egregious are new rules that would require Canadian snowbirds who normally spend up to six months in the US annually to register if staying more than 30 days, and require other short-term travellers to file yet another form – online if possible. 

And then there is an additional process for those travelling by air, and yet another for road-trekkers. Clarifications by Homeland Security may still be underway, and it may take time to get the true picture. However, it’s not the details of the final rules so much as the principle that Canadians, America’s most faithful visitors and neighbours, are being required to justify their trips and provide yet another proof beyond simply showing their passports, as it has been for years.
 
Beyond the Canadian travel deflation, Europeans too are pulling back from US travel: France, Germany, the UK, and Denmark are issuing warnings for US-bound travellers, citing visa processing delays, danger zones to avoid, admission issues, public and social unrest, arrests and detentions risk, and advice to stay away from college campuses. Belgium, too, has recently updated its guidance for transgender travellers, declaring: “Travellers to the US must identify their gender as either ‘male’ or ‘female’ when applying for an ESTA or visa.” There are no other options. 

Beyond the Canadian travel deflation, Europeans too are pulling back from US travel

Top rank slipping away
The publication Travel and Tour World asks the big question: “Can the US regain its position as a top tourist destination, or are we witnessing the beginning of a major shift in global travel trends?”

No conclusion yet, just a question, but the US Travel Association calculates that new tariffs on Canadian visits and consequent spending in the US will be costly. Canada was the top source of international visitors to the US, with 20.4 million visits, in 2024. That generated US$20.5 billion in spending and supported 140,000 American jobs. Even a 10% reduction in Canadian travel could mean two million fewer visits, $2.1 billion in lost spending and 14,000 job losses.

And, according to a Newsweek article, Jukka Laitamaki, a professor of international hospitality and tourism at New York University, estimates that if the various warnings and embargoes spread to other countries, the economic impact to the US could be anywhere between $60 and $120 billion in 2025.

But it’s not all about money
In today’s fractious environment, and with threats of punitive tariffs and nonsensical but irritating stories of annexation (of Canada as well as Greenland) topping the daily news, President Trump continues to maintain that all he wants is for America to stop being taken for granted by its allies, and to have the 7,500 miles of US national borders respected. As he insists, “a nation without borders in not a nation” – a goal endorsed by leaders of most European countries, and even the Schengen group, which, though dedicated to borderless travel, admits that the occasional raising of barriers is sometimes helpful. 

On the issue of the US’s own borders, and the damage done to them by the previous administration, the president may have a legitimate beef. According to data from the House Committee on Homeland Security, since 1 October 2020, US Customs and Border Patrol agents have “encountered” an estimated 10.82 million people (adults and children) seeking entry at border stations in the southwest and designated crossing points in Canada. (Note: an “encounter” is a face-to face meeting with an agent to determine status and eligibility for entry.) 

There were also the estimated two 
million “gotaways” who crashed the border, evaded agents and cops, and headed inland through several states to make their fortunes.  

In addition, the humanitarian parole programme for Cubans, Haitians, Nicaraguans, and Venezuelans allowed 530,000 citizens of these four countries, and their immediate family members, to be paroled into the US for a period of up to two years, to be supported by families, friends or private organisations such as church groups.   

It’s noteworthy that the census of “border arrivals” includes citizens of 160 countries, most with only minimal IDs, and some with trackable “terrorist” backgrounds… yet all still released into the US with an instruction to self-report to a given court at some future date (sometimes years away), to determine their permanent status.

Even a 10% reduction in Canadian travel could mean two million fewer visits, $2.1 billion in lost spending and 14,000 job losses

This was the playbook left behind by the Biden administration, which characterised its generosity of humanitarian outreach, but which its political opponents slammed as opportunistic voter packing (assuming by the time the new citizens are eligible to vote they’ll go the way of their benefactor) – all part of the Democrat/Republican debate heritage over the ages. 

The result, however, has widely been attributed by its critics as a source of lawlessness, gang violence, police hatred, attacks on women, children and subway travellers across the nation, ultimately turning large segments of many communities into “high-risk” zones in so-called sanctuary cities. 

Do warnings really warn?
Official government warnings have their role. But do they have the impact of social media narratives, like the message of a California woman who, while visiting Mexico with her fiancé, a visiting German national, was allegedly handcuffed when protesting the arrest of her travelling mate, who was shown to have overstayed his 90-day visa allowance? She claimed she was rudely treated, while her fiancé was detained for a couple of weeks before being allowed to fly home to Germany. All she was looking for was a few days of leisure in Mexico and a few souvenirs to bring back home as she had her pet dog treated by a local veterinarian: cheaper than stateside. 

When looking through some of these reports by casual travellers caught up in something they didn’t anticipate, it’s obvious that official warnings have limited impact. They’re too easy to ignore. Better to tune in to a messenger that tells you what you want to hear in language you understand. But again and again, the casualness of cross-border documentation, requirements, tips, and warnings shows through. 

Visas and tourist permits are easily obtained, but too often not examined or understood, just like how travel insurance policies, once bought, are rarely read – until catastrophe strikes. Despite the repeated warning notices by American, Canadian, UK, French, German governments about travel to Mexico, or Iran, or dozens of other locations bidding for tourist cash, travellers go bare of information.

Visas and tourist permits are easily obtained, but too often not examined or understood, just like how travel insurance policies, once bought, are rarely read

For that matter, how often do sellers of travel insurance, in a perfect position to emphasise the need for assessing warnings, do so, once the sale is made?

Consequently, travellers may have all the right documents to present if asked, but at the end of that line is the agent/officer looking the traveller in the eye, asking a few questions, looking for signs of fidgeting, asking for a little more information and determining by his or her instincts to let the traveller pass? With all that documentation intact, it’s still the role of that agent to make the traveller’s day – or not.