ITIC Americas 2025 | Geopolitical pressures affecting international travellers, workers and students
Seth Krummich shared insights and information about regions around the world that are particularly at risk of instability in the coming year
The ITIJ team have been reporting live from ITIC Americas in Miami this week (March 2025) sharing the discussions that took place at the conference. Read all reports
Seth Krummich, Vice President Client Risk Management, Global Guardian
Krummich started his presentation by talking about global preparedness and said companies should have plans in place for medical emergencies, cyber hacks, natural disaster evacuations, personal security incident response, and geopolitical crisis management.
He said the US had issues but remains the global superpower. Krummich said we are at the beginning of the end of the unipolar moment (post Second World War) and its business benefits. He said that businesses and families will face a series of interconnected challenges in 2025 and beyond, and that the era of worldwide business operations in a secure and stable environment is ending. “Conflicts are emerging, escalating, or protracting in Africa, the Middle East, and Ukraine, with escalating tension in Asia,” he said, adding that interstate conflict is directly impacting the commercial sector. He said various drivers of civil unrest are converging, and that cyber and artificial intelligence (AI) continue to wreak havoc.
Krummich said there are ever-expanding risk vectors: geopolitics; geo-economics; cybersecurity and disruptive technology; environment; and public health. He said that the Global Peace Index (GPI) shows that there is the highest number of countries engaged in conflict since the Second World War: currently 56 conflicts, with 92 countries involved in conflicts outside their borders, the most since the GPI’s inception.
He added that there is a shifting corporate threat environment with political impacts on executives, businesses and travellers. He said that kidnap and ransom is massively on the increase – Brazil had 4,390 cases in 2023 – and that virtual kidnapping is a new risk.
Krummich said the 50/50 rule should be the new norm when it comes to attacks: 50% preparation and prevention, 50% response and recovery, adding that anti-American sentiment is growing fast and will change the threat vectors to US and western travellers. He added: “We are moving forward in a different threat landscape. The new normal will consist of consistent global disruption… anticipate three to seven major global disruptive events a year.”
He finished by saying social decay and desperation could mean an increase in crime and conflict if citizens do not regain trust in government institutions.