Travel risk: perception versus reality

Dealing with facts, not opinion

Recent events, including the war in Ukraine, the Middle East conflicts, the China/Taiwan standoff, political turmoil across Latin America, the fall of the Sahel, and upcoming global elections, would lead us to believe that we are on the brink of an apocalypse. In fact, based on how these events are often reported, you could be forgiven for expecting to see four horsemen appearing on the horizon very soon.

The role of the security adviser is to cut through the noise and to deal in fact, not opinion, but all too often the lines between the two are so blurred they blend into one. When it comes to the perception of travel risk, there has often been a negative slant. After every major event, questions are asked whether it’s safe to travel. Therefore, the perception leans towards travel being inherently dangerous. However – and it’s a big ‘however’ – these misconceptions often ignore the fact that over one billion people travel between countries every year with little or no trouble. So, what is the reality?

A few years ago, as the world came out of the Covid-19 pandemic, it wasn’t unreasonable to think that travel was the safest it had ever been. We no longer took it for granted, having been deprived of it for the best part of two years. New security measures were in place, and travel safety suddenly found itself at the top of most risk registers.

As we move through 2024 and into 2025, the picture is changing and it’s not for the better. The new reality is that the world is certainly more politically unstable than it has been for many years. With key events taking place throughout 2024, the next 12 months could see dramatic changes to the way we travel.

The knock-on effect of the situations in Ukraine and the Middle East will invariably see the cost of travel increase, but this is a minor risk compared to other areas, which will require higher levels of rigour being applied to travel security. While the threat of terrorist attacks may increase, there are other dangers that are more likely to impact a greater number of people.

Although it may sound like the stuff of a James Bond movie, the spectre of espionage is emerging as a real menace for business travellers, especially those visiting high-risk locations. China’s espionage laws are a legitimate concern and will undoubtedly impact many travellers going to that country. The reality is that most will never find out that they and their company have become victims of spying. Businesses need to understand that any tech they take into a foreign country is going to be of interest and may well be subject to scrutiny by covert means by host nation actors.

Similarly, misinformation and disinformation are now part of the world we live in and most certainly need to be considered as a travel risk. Both occur on a criminal and state level and both have the opportunity to disrupt travel and create widespread chaos. Equally, cybersecurity is a greater risk to travellers and organisations than ever before, and sadly most organisations are not keeping up with the procedures required to protect data, individuals, finances and identities. The growth of artificial intelligence (AI) and how it can be manipulated for malicious purposes must be at the forefront of our travel risk management processes. AI is only going to evolve and we must learn how to develop solutions in order to combat the potential harm it represents. 

Climate crisis and civil unrest

Regardless of your opinion on climate change, there can be no denying there has been an increase in extreme weather events in recent years, and there’s nothing to suggest this is going to improve any time soon. Wildfires, flooding, extreme heat and cold, as well as tropical cyclones all impact travel and can cause injury and death on a large scale. Even though they are often predictable, they still catch people unawares. According to the World Meteorological Organization, extreme weather events are five times more likely now than they were 50 years ago.

When governments and employers fulfil their roles in protecting travellers effectively, we have a better-informed travelling population

It’s not just the environment that’s hazardous. It’s difficult to think of a time when society has been so polarised, which increases the risk of civil unrest. Events of this nature can erupt with little or no warning and can be exceptionally violent. When they do occur, they often shut down transportation networks, impact communications and severely inhibit the ability of emergency services to function effectively. The breakdown of law and order is a genuine worry and will, without doubt, restrict the ability to safely evacuate personnel from a trouble hotspot. Demonstrations and acts of civil disobedience, which could turn violent, are likely to increase, and this presents a challenge to those tasked with mitigating travel risk, due largely to the unpredictable nature of such situations.

So, what can we do to mitigate these risks? When governments and employers fulfil their roles in protecting travellers effectively, we have a better-informed travelling population. The next, and arguably the most important, piece is the individual traveller. It is they who can make a real difference to safety and security and to achieve this, organisations must make risks relevant to the traveller, by increasing their awareness of the existing and potential threats to their safety. It’s also vital that travellers are given ownership over their risk and have the ability and skills to review and revise travel plans, particularly in light of a change of circumstances. This, in turn, helps create a culture of safety and security, which empowers travellers to recognise and report concerns, so that appropriate action and support can be provided. Finally, travellers must be part of the travel safety and security review process. Without this, vital knowledge and intelligence will be lost.

Given the current global picture, the gap between travel risk perception and reality is closing. The unpredictability of the geopolitical situation means there’s a very real chance that the reality might drive the perception, rather than the other way round. Organisations and individuals need to be prepared to face an uncertain and unpredictable future when travelling to overseas locations.