UN warns of potentially severe El Niño as global temperatures rise
El Niño conditions are expected to strengthen, which could heighten disruption risks across key international travel regions
The United Nations (UN) has warned that a developing El Niño weather pattern could become one of the strongest on record, raising concerns over travel disruption, medical assistance demand, and climate-related claims activity in the months ahead.
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said El Niño conditions were expected to strengthen during the remainder of 2026, potentially driving higher global temperatures and increasing the likelihood of extreme weather events across several regions popular with international travellers.
Scientists said unusually warm ocean temperatures in the tropical Pacific indicated that a significant El Niño event was developing, with some forecasting models suggesting it could reach levels comparable to, or stronger than, previous major episodes recorded in 1982 and 2015.
The warning raises the potential for increased claims linked to severe weather disruption, heat-related illness, and emergency medical assistance requirements.
The WMO said El Niño was likely to contribute to hotter and drier conditions across parts of Southeast Asia, Australia, and southern South America, increasing the risk of drought and wildfires.
Other regions, including parts of the southern US, East Africa, and northern South America, could face heavier rainfall and potential flooding.
The organisation noted that the climate phenomenon develops when warmer-than-average ocean waters spread across the tropical Pacific, altering weather patterns worldwide.
UN Secretary-General António Guterres warned that El Niño conditions could intensify the impacts of a warming climate, while WMO officials urged governments and organisations to prepare for heightened weather-related risks.
“El Niño conditions will pour fuel on the fire of a warming world,” he said. “Impacts will hit even harder, travel even farther, and cross borders with devastating speed.”
The latest forecasts suggested above-average temperatures were likely across much of the world during the second half of 2026, with El Niño conditions expected to persist into late autumn.
Previous El Niño events have been associated with travel disruption, infrastructure damage, flight delays, and increased demand for medical and security support services.
Periods of extreme heat and changing rainfall patterns have also been linked to a greater risk of heat-related illness, food and water insecurity, and the spread of some vector-borne diseases.
While uncertainty remains over the event’s eventual strength, the WMO warned that even a moderate El Niño could have significant consequences because it would occur against a backdrop of record global temperatures driven by climate change.
Climate scientists said 2027 was now increasingly likely to become the warmest year ever recorded if El Niño continues to intensify, potentially adding further pressure to healthcare systems, travel operators, and emergency response networks worldwide.