NOAA launches new weather forecast system

The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has announced the launch of a new weather forecast system, which it says will provide improved prediction of two major aviation hazards: aircraft icing and turbulence.

The system, known as the Domestic Aviation Forecast System (DAFS), covers the contiguous US, and will be able to give “more detailed forecasts of evolving icing and turbulence risks, giving pilots real-time intelligence about changing weather conditions along their flight path”.

The forecast system is based on NOAA’s most advanced operational regional forecast model, High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR), which was designed to track rapidly evolving severe weather events. HRRR provides an updated forecast every hour on a 3km grid, using three-dimensional radar data every 15 minutes.

This replaces a previous system where icing and turbulence guidance were generated from data collected only every hour, from a less detailed 13km grid.

“This is the culmination of extensive research and years of work that gets right to the heart of our aviation forecast mission: supporting passenger safety and the aviation industry,” said Terra Ladwig, Acting Chief of NOAA Global Systems Laboratory’s Assimilation, Verification, and Innovation Division.

Joshua Scheck, Aviation Support Branch Chief for NOAA’s Aviation Weather Center, added: “The DAFS is another example of how NOAA continuously works with the FAA to deliver the most accurate, timely, and useful aviation forecasts. Improving prediction of turbulence and icing will strengthen NOAA’s ability to provide critical flight safety information to the FAA and the aviation community.”

Weather events such as blizzards and severe storms can cause major disruption to flight traffic.