Inbound tourism boom forecast for China

Trip.com Group Chairman James Liang has forecast a sharp rise in inbound tourism to China, predicting the country could attract around 200 million international arrivals over the next five years and emerge as one of the world’s leading travel destinations.

According to comments reported in domestic media, Liang said stronger inbound tourism could support economic growth and help reduce China’s widening services trade deficit. He estimated inbound travel could contribute between 5% and 7% annually to economic growth, noting that inbound tourism generated direct revenue equal to 0.67% of GDP last year.

China’s services trade deficit has reached CH¥828.7 billion (US$121.3 billion), driven largely by higher outbound spending from Chinese travellers than inbound visitor expenditure, according to CEIC Data.

However, some analysts questioned the scale of Liang’s projections. Xu Tianchen, Senior Economist at the Economist Intelligence Unit, said inbound tourism could more realistically contribute 2–3% annually to growth.

“China remains an underappreciated destination for global travellers due to visa restrictions, service quality gaps, and insufficient promotion,” Xu said.

China has expanded visa-free entry to citizens from around 50 countries since 2023 and widened tax refund schemes for overseas visitors. Official data showed inbound travel exceeded 150 million trips last year, with foreign visitor spending surpassing $130 billion.

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