US policies spark $88 billion threat to global business travel in 2025

Recent US government actions – including tariffs, cross-border policies, and travel entry restrictions – have created a more uncertain environment for global business travel in 2025. According to a new Global Business Travel Association (GBTA) poll of over 900 global professionals, optimism about the industry’s near-term future has declined sharply, with concerns growing around volume, spending, and revenue.

The poll defined these government actions as including tariffs on imports, restrictions on travellers from specific countries, US travel advisories, detainment risks, and limitations on federal employee travel. Only 44% of global travel buyers believe their organisation’s travel volume or spending will remain unaffected. Just 25% of suppliers expect no impact on revenue.

Nearly 30% of buyers anticipate an average 21% drop in travel volume, and 27% expect a 20% decrease in spending on average. This could mean up to US$88 billion less in global travel spending, based on the $1.63 trillion forecast for 2025. Meanwhile, 37% of suppliers and travel management companies foresee an average 18% revenue decline.

Overall optimism has dropped significantly – only 31% of respondents are optimistic about the industry in 2025, down from 67% in November 2024. GBTA CEO Suzanne Neufang noted: “While the outlook for global business travel was incredibly strong coming into 2025, our research now shows increasing concerns and uncertainty within our industry, considering recent actions taken by the US government. Travelling for work plays a vital role in supporting business growth, resilient economies, strong diplomatic ties and valuable connections.”

Key factors that could shape long-term impacts include sustained economic pressure and restricted cross-border mobility to and from the US.

Additional findings show that 7% of buyer organisations have already changed policies for US travel, while 25% are considering doing so. Up to 20% are cancelling or reconsidering participation in US-based events, and 14% have relocated meetings outside the US. Companies outside the US are three times more likely to make such changes.

Top long-term concerns include increased travel costs (54%), budget cuts (40%), visa and documentation burdens (46%), traveller reluctance (37%), and safety and duty of care (37%). Notably, 23% of respondents know someone whose travel was directly affected by recent US policies.

International travel to the US is projected to decline by 15.2% in 2025 compared with ‎baseline projections, according to research by analytics firm Tourism Economics.