TUI posts strong H1 results, predicting tougher second half amid geopolitical and economic headwinds

Travel group TUI has reported a strong first half of FY2026 (ending 31 March), alongside caution that the ongoing conflict in Iran continues to weigh on bookings, operations, and financial visibility. Despite these headwinds, the company delivered improved profitability and growth in demand across its core segments.

TUI reported underlying earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) of -€111 million for the first half, an improvement of €45 million year on year, despite additional costs linked to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and Hurricane Melissa in Jamaica. In the second quarter alone, underlying EBIT improved by €19 million year on year to -€188 million, reflecting a seasonally weaker trading period that nonetheless showed solid operational progress. Revenue rose by 1.3%, while results included around €40 million in one-off costs related to the Iran conflict.

Performance was supported by continued operational improvements in the Markets + Airline division and resilient demand across Holiday Experiences, particularly cruises. Over the period, TUI welcomed 12.8 million guests (+0.2 million year on year), highlighting sustained demand for package holidays.

The update reflects the growing operational and financial exposure associated with geopolitical instability in key leisure travel regions. TUI repatriated around 10,000 guests following the outbreak of hostilities in late February, including cruise passengers, European package holiday customers, and 1,500 crewmembers.

The conflict also forced the cancellation of itineraries for Mein Schiff 4 and Mein Schiff 5 until mid-May after the vessels remained docked in Abu Dhabi and Doha. Both ships have now exited the Persian Gulf and are due to restart Mediterranean sailings.

TUI said the “ongoing conflict in the Middle East and the uncertainty surrounding its duration continue to limit near-term visibility and drive consumer caution”. The company added that customers were increasingly booking closer to departure and shifting demand away from Eastern Mediterranean destinations such as Turkey, Cyprus, and Egypt toward Western Mediterranean markets.

As a result, summer 2026 booked revenue in Markets + Airline is currently 7% below prior year levels, while Hotels & Resorts occupancy for the second half has also softened by 7%. However, the company highlighted ongoing strength in last-minute bookings for the summer.

Reflecting the ongoing uncertainty, TUI has revised its FY2026 underlying EBIT guidance to between €1.1bn and €1.4bn and suspended its revenue guidance until conditions stabilise. The operator said its outlook assumes “no material escalation in geopolitical tensions” and continued fuel availability.

The update comes shortly after a significant number of UK holidaymakers who fell ill while travelling to Cape Verde pursued legal action against TUI Group.