The latest results of the Henley Passport Index − a global ranking of countries according to the travel freedom of their citizens − raise challenging questions about what travel freedom and global mobility really mean, both currently and in a deeply uncertain post-pandemic future.

3.5 billion people (nearly half the global population) are living in voluntary or mandatory confinement

The Index was established back in 2006 and has since provided the authoritative annual ranking of global passport strength. It has charted the dramatic surge in travel freedom over the years; 14 years ago, a citizen could travel to 58 destinations on average without a visa from the host nation, and by 2020 this number had almost doubled to 107.

In January this year, the first ranking of the new decade was published and conclusively confirmed that, overall, people were more globally mobile than they had ever been in the history of humankind. Indeed, the top-ranking passport (Japan) offered its holders access to 191 destinations without requiring a visa in advance. But now, a pandemic is upon us and the situation is very different.

Although Japan’s passport still holds the top spot, travel restrictions mean that non-essential travel for Japanese nationals is not possible. And this is the same situation for almost every nation – at present, 3.5 billion people (nearly half the global population) are living in voluntary or mandatory confinement. So, what does passport strength mean at a time like this?

As Dr Christian H Kaelin, Chairman of Henley & Partners and the inventor of the Passport Index concept, points out, in an unprecedented global health emergency such as this, relative passport strength becomes temporarily meaningless: "A Swiss citizen can, in theory, travel to 185 destinations around the world without needing a visa in advance, but the last few weeks have made it apparent that travel freedom is contingent on factors that can be utterly beyond our control. This is something that citizens of countries with weak passports in the lower ranks of the index are all too familiar with."

Emerging research and analysis commissioned by Henley & Partners suggests that the unprecedented and overwhelming focus on health security and pandemic preparedness may change the face of global mobility forever. Political science researchers Uğur Altundal and Ömer Zarpli of Syracuse University and the University of Pittsburgh, respectively, say ‘the quality and level of health security of a country could be a significant consideration for visa waivers in future’.

The epidemic ... has affected the entire industry in very significant and far-reaching ways.

Bleak news for air travel

And when it comes to air traffic statistics, new figures published by Finavia, which manages and develops 21 airports in Finland, present a snapshot of the dramatic impact of the pandemic on air traffic and airport operations. The number of air passengers for all Finavia airports fell by 20.1 per cent in January to March, and in March, Helsinki Airport’s passenger numbers were down 57.2 per cent compared to the same period the previous year. The impact of the decrease in air traffic on Finavia’s turnover is estimated to be over €100 million.

Kimmo Mäki, Finavia CEO, said: “The coronavirus pandemic has made itself felt in many ways at Finavia’s airports. All of us operating at airports have been worried about the safety of passengers. The epidemic, which became a worldwide pandemic outbreak in only a few weeks, has affected the entire industry in very significant and far-reaching ways. The situation has also had an effect on airlines and companies that operate at airports as well as jobs and investments.”

With the world shrouded in uncertainty brought about by Covid-19, who knows what the future of travel will hold, or what the lasting impact of the virus will be. One thing is for sure – never again will we take global mobility for granted.