Ryanair cuts winter capacity as fuel costs squeeze margins

Ryanair is cutting its winter flying programme and lowering its passenger forecast as elevated jet fuel prices threaten to deepen losses during the traditionally weaker season.

Europe’s largest low-cost carrier now expects to carry 214 million passengers in the financial year to March 2027, down from its previous forecast of 216 million.

The airline said the targeted capacity reductions should cut winter losses by between €70 million and €100 million, with passenger traffic expected to remain broadly flat year on year.

Ryanair said jet fuel was trading at around $140 a barrel, compared with approximately $67 a barrel for the 80% of its fuel requirements it has hedged through to March 2027. The carrier remains exposed to higher market prices for its unhedged fuel needs.

Network cuts are already taking effect. Ryanair is removing five aircraft from its Charleroi base in Belgium and cutting around two million seats from its Brussels schedule across winter 2026 and summer 2027. It has also closed its Thessaloniki base and withdrawn several routes in Greece.

Despite the winter retrenchment, Ryanair expects stronger demand in summer 2027, forecasting passenger growth of more than 5% to around 145 million. In August 2026, it carried 22.2 million passengers, up 6% year on year, with a 96% load factor.

Ryanair warned that a prolonged period of high oil prices could push up short-haul airfares across Europe, which could spell danger for airlines with less oil-price protection. “If high oil prices continue through to summer 2027, Ryanair believes short-haul airfares in Europe will increase materially to reflect higher oil prices as some less well-hedged competitors will struggle to maintain capacity or even survive this coming winter season.”

The airline still expects to remain profitable in the current financial year, although below its record €2.17 billion profit in fiscal 2026.