Quieter Atlantic hurricane season could support Caribbean tourism growth
NOAA’s prediction for below-normal activity in the Atlantic basin could bring more visitors to the region during the autumn and winter, after a successful 2025
Forecasters from NOAA’s National Weather Service have predicted the number of expected named storms to be between 7-13 (with winds of 39mph or greater), of which 2-6 could become hurricanes (winds of 74mph or greater), including 0-2 major hurricanes (winds of 111mph or greater).
These ranges cover the entire season from 1 June through to the end of November and are inclusive of the two tropical storms that have already formed.
NOAA forecasters predict a 75% chance for below-normal activity, with a 20% chance of a near-normal season, and just a 5% chance of above-normal activity. This updated prediction is similar to the initial outlook that the NOAA issued earlier this year.
In the Atlantic basin, a typical hurricane season will yield 14 named storms, of which seven become hurricanes, including three major hurricanes.
Factors influencing the Atlantic hurricane season outlook
For the remainder of the season, tropical storm activity in the Atlantic basin is expected to be tempered by El Niño conditions, which first emerged in the equatorial Pacific in June. El Niño increases wind shear, which tends to prevent tropical storms from forming or from getting stronger once formed.
Other less influential factors include temperatures near average in the Atlantic Ocean and a neutral West African monsoon.
“When El Nino emerges, it usually becomes the dominant factor in total hurricane season activity, and this El Nino continues to get stronger every month,” said Matt Rosencrans, lead hurricane season forecaster with NOAA’s National Weather Service.
“Compared to a mature El Nino, other mechanisms play a smaller role in determining the number and intensity of tropical storms in the Atlantic basin.”
Tourism on a growth trajectory
Caribbean tourism continued its expansion in 2025, recording a 2.5% increase in international stay-over arrivals to an estimated 35 million visits, according to the Caribbean Tourism Organization (CTO).
This performance – approximately 900,000 more tourists than in 2024 – reflects the region’s sustained recovery and resilience, with arrivals once again surpassing pre-pandemic 2019 levels.
Despite a complex global environment marked by evolving economic conditions in key source markets, heightened geopolitical tensions and weather-related disruptions, including the passage of Hurricane Melissa, the region maintained steady tourism demand throughout much of the year.
“Caribbean tourism in 2025 demonstrated continued resilience and adaptability even as the global landscape presented a number of challenges,” said Aliyyah Shakeer, CTO’s Director of Research. “Strategic investments in tourism infrastructure, sustained marketing efforts, and incremental gains in airlift connectivity helped support growth and maintain the region’s competitiveness.”