More on novel coronavirus

So, the World Health Organization’s Emergency Committee convened yesterday (22 January) but, despite an ‘excellent discussion’, the WHO Director-General stated that in order to proceed, more information is required. “For that reason, I have decided to ask the Emergency Committee to meet again tomorrow to continue their discussion, and the Chair, Dr Houssin, has agreed with that request,” he said. “The decision about whether or not to declare a public health emergency of international concern is one I take extremely seriously, and one I am only prepared to make with appropriate consideration of all the evidence. Our team in China working with local experts and officials to investigate the outbreak. We will have much more to say tomorrow.”

Snake is the most probable wildlife animal reservoir for the 2019-nCoV

And in China, a second city, Huanggang, is preparing to go into lockdown, while in Wuhan authorities have suspended planes and trains entering and leaving the city, as well as all public transport within the city. A third city, Ezhou, has also announced that it has shut its train stations.

Meanwhile, there has been research to suggest that the origin of the coronavirus is … wait for it … snakes! Research findings published in the Journal of Medical Virology suggest that patients who became infected with the virus were exposed to wildlife animals at a wholesale market, where seafood, poultry, snake, bats and farm animals were sold.

"Results derived from our evolutionary analysis suggest for the first time that snake is the most probable wildlife animal reservoir for the 2019-nCoV," the authors said. "New information obtained from our evolutionary analysis is highly significant for effective control of the outbreak caused by the 2019-nCoV-induced pneumonia."

According to the Daily Telegraph newspaper, experts have estimated that as many as 4,000 people in Wuhan could be infected with the virus. There is a bit of a discrepancy between this and the figure of 500 that Chinese authorities and state media have reported. So, what’s the truth? Disease modelling experts at Imperial College London in the UK have said that the true figure is 4,000 and could actually be as high as 9,700.

We’ve updated our estimates of the number of cases to a central estimate of about 4,000 in Wuhan

Neil Ferguson, Professor of Mathematical Biology at Imperial College, said: “We’ve updated our estimates of the number of cases to a central estimate of about 4,000 in Wuhan. It will be much more complicated to estimate for the whole of China … it’s not that the epidemic has doubled in size in the last five days but that more information has been gathered and more cases have been exported [to other countries].”

In the UK, Public Health England has said that it has put in place proportionate, precautionary measures building on those already in place in Wuhan and is closely monitoring the situation. “A Port Health team is meeting each direct flight from Wuhan to provide advice and support to those that feel unwell and we have issued clinical guidance on detection and diagnosis to the NHS,” it said on Twitter.

Dr Nick Phin, Deputy Director, National Infection Service, PHE, said: “If you are travelling to Wuhan, you should maintain good hand, respiratory and personal hygiene and avoid visiting animal and bird markets or people who are ill with respiratory symptoms. Individuals should seek medical attention if they develop respiratory symptoms within 14 days of visiting Wuhan, either in China or on their return to the UK. They should phone ahead before attending any health services and mention their recent travel to the city.”