MENASA international travel forecast to rise 17% in 2027

International travel across the Middle East, North Africa and South Asia (MENASA) is forecast to grow by 17% in 2027, more than twice the projected global rate, according to new research from Arabian Travel Market and Tourism Economics.

The ATM Travel Trends Report 2026 forecasts global international travel growth of 8% next year, with MENASA expected to rebound more strongly following geopolitical disruption during 2026.

The forecast builds on significant growth across the region since the pandemic. Total travel volumes across MENASA in 2025 were almost 50% above 2019 levels – three times the growth recorded globally – while the region accounted for more than half of the worldwide increase in international travel over the period.

Globally, international arrivals exceeded 1.5 billion for the first time in 2025, while total visitor nights reached 24 billion, 16% above 2019 levels. In-destination spending was 26% higher than in 2019 at US$7.2 trillion.

Tourism Economics also found that the travel industry's recovery from major disruptions has accelerated. Recovery periods that took around 24 months in the early 2000s have shortened to approximately 10–12 months in recent years.

By 2030, international travel across the region is forecast to reach 316 million arrivals and 2.3 billion visitor nights, increases of 36% and 46%, respectively, compared with 2025. International visitor spending is expected to reach US$408 billion.

Long-haul travel is expected to contribute to that expansion, with leisure nights from China to the Middle East forecast to increase by 160% by 2030.

Sustained growth in international arrivals would expand the potential pool of insured journeys across MENASA, while increasing the importance of medical and assistance networks capable of supporting travellers across a geographically diverse region.

Dave Goodger, Managing Director EMEA at Tourism Economics, said: “Over the next five years, we see travel expanding on a structural basis rather than just a cyclical rebound. International travel has never mattered more; 2026 is building on a record 2025, and MENASA is outpacing the world.

 “This year is disrupted by an uncertain economic and geopolitical backdrop, but consumers are treating travel as essential,” he continued. “People are prioritising experiences over things, and that, combined with favourable demographics, rising wealth and sustained investment in capacity, underpins our confidence in the region’s long-term momentum.”

Is travel insurance the Middle East’s latest tourism differentiator? Read more in this ITIJ news analysis.