ITIC UK 2025 | Navigating geopolitical risk and travel trends in 2025

The ITIJ team are reporting live from ITIC UK in Southampton. Read all the reports here.

George Dagnall, Chief Operating Officer, Hotspot Cover

Beginning with where you can expect to find risk, Dagnall explained that it was no longer simple and that it is higher in areas that were not traditionally considered risky.

Dagnall shared a global map with the relative risks for each country ranging from ‘low’ to ‘extreme’. He then showed a comparison with the countries on the Conflict Index, highlighting the countries that had the most danger to civilians, the most active groups in the conflict and the ones that are the most deadly. “What we are beginning to see is the military industrial complex building across Europe,” said Dagnall.

Dagnall added that “watching out for sanctions and embargoes” helps reduce the ‘doom and gloom’ and give an indication of where things are progressing in areas of unrest and danger.

Dagnall indicated the current growing threats and developments from the Pakistan-India border. He also said that although there isn’t a huge amount of travel there, the Arctic is an area of growing risk as Russia starts to mine there for minerals and Trump is responding with his overt wish to control Canada and Greenland to get a competing share of that wealth.

Emphasising that risk calculation is more complex than ever before, Dagnall highlighted a few key examples showing the reality of complexity and challenges facing global travel:

• 41% of international travellers in 2024 experienced at least one unexpected security or political issue during a trip (International SOS Risk Outlook 2025)
• 22% increase in travel-related detentions, arbitrary stops, and access issues globally between 2023 and 2024 (Solace Global Hostage Diplomacy Report 2025)
• The Middle East, North Africa, and Eastern Europe top the charts for political disruption impacting travel (Global Risk Map 2025, Control Risks).

He added: “While people feel more confident, the objective risk landscape is getting harder to predict.”

Discussing some of the factors that are affecting risk management, Dagnall pointed out that there were elements under increasing pressure and stress, which led to further risks.

As well as risk, Dagnall summarised the risks to and needs associated with safeguarding physical wellbeing, and highlighted the influences affecting political volatility, on top of the current global health challenges.

Dagnall listed the areas where traditional insurance models struggle to cover or support the insured across policy coverage and limitations (blanket ware and terrorism exclusions, ‘buy back’ clauses limiting war and terrorism coverage, insufficient coverage limits in tricky areas, Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office-related exclusions, and poor policy management and administration) and ineffective response (offering coverage without local response capability, assuming air evacuation is always available, unresponsive assistance partners in changing environments, and a lack of direct contact with key decision-makers).

He explained the three pillars for effective insurance, which include tailored solutions, global protection, and an integrated response.

Dagnall’s recommended five main points were: assess the risks, monitor situations, choose coverage wisely, have regular reviews, and train personnel.

His final thoughts were some new ‘rules’ of travel risk: most threats today are non-linear and hybrid – cyber, political detention, misinformation (politics, perception, and platforms all colliding); start with risk – don’t just “buy insurance”. It’s unmanaged risk that’s dangerous: your most well-planned itinerary can collapse in an hour if you’re not situationally aware; and embedding security thinking upstream reduces cost downstream.

Banting asked whether Dagnall thinks people are underestimating the threat of travel overseas to areas less traditionally dangerous Dagnall’s response was: “It’s hard to answer because there is so much happening all the time. And it’s across the board. It’s hard where things are changing so often.”

Regarding a question about whether there will be any benefits of Trump’s trade wars, tariffs and geopolitical uncertainty, Dagnall said: “Chaotic impromptu decision-making may have some benefits; overall, I don’t think that there are many.” He added that an example of a benefit was the cooperation of European countries: “As Europeans stand together as a block, it can show we are just as strong with GDP as the USA.”

Asked if there was one thing for the audience to take away today, Dagnall said that companies need to do deeper research into regions of risk for their staff or customers so that they can properly understand the risk of travel to those areas: “Peel back the layers of information and get a true idea of what’s happening there.”