ITIC Global 2026 | Keynote speaker session: Frank Gardner

The ITIJ team have been reporting from ITIC Global in Istanbul this week (1–5 November 2026), sharing the discussions that take place at the conference. Read all reports.

“You could all be about to be extremely busy… I hope you’re not, but you might be.”

It was a sobering warning from BBC Security Correspondent Frank Gardner OBE, who opened ITIC Global 2026 with an examination of the geopolitical tensions threatening international travel, healthcare, and assistance operations.

But first, Gardner shared a deeply personal account of his own medical evacuation.

In 2004, while reporting in Saudi Arabia, Gardner and his cameraman were ambushed by terrorists in Riyadh. His cameraman was killed, while Gardner was shot six times and left critically injured.

He recalled being taken to hospital in the back of a police car before intervention from the British Embassy helped secure the specialist treatment that saved his life.

For eight days, his survival remained uncertain. The surgeon who treated him had extensive experience of gunshot injuries, having previously worked in a Cape Town trauma unit treating approximately 1,000 gunshot victims annually.

“What he didn’t know about gunshot trauma was not worth knowing,” Gardner recalled.

He was subsequently transported by air ambulance to Luton Airport, then transferred by helicopter to the Royal London Hospital. Seven months in hospital and 14 operations followed, leaving him with permanent nerve damage.

Three possible futures for the Middle East

Turning to global security, Gardner warned that the Middle East was approaching a critical crossroads.

“We are right on the cusp in terms of the Middle East right now between war and peace,” he told the audience.

He outlined three scenarios, each with significant implications for international assistance providers.

The most optimistic would see the US and Iran reach a negotiated agreement, easing sanctions and restrictions on maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Gardner emphasised the waterway’s importance beyond oil, including natural gas, fertilisers, and other essential commodities.

A second, more dangerous possibility would involve renewed US strikes against Iran, followed by retaliation targeting infrastructure across the Gulf, potentially including airports, transport networks, desalination plants, hotels, and military installations.

Gardner warned that such escalation could severely disrupt international travel and complicate medical evacuations.

Recalling a planned holiday to India in February, he described arriving at Gatwick Airport as news broke of strikes on Tehran. Despite being boarded, passengers were eventually taken off the aircraft and sent home.

“This time, if this war happens, if it reignites, it’s going to paralyse air traffic over the Middle East once again,” he warned.

The third scenario would see neither peace nor renewed full-scale conflict, but a prolonged standoff marked by economic pressure, uncertainty, and elevated energy prices.

Ukraine and the changing nature of warfare

Gardner also examined the ongoing war in Ukraine and Europe’s reliance on the US for defence.

He highlighted two lessons from the conflict: the continuing importance of military scale and the growing role of drones, which increasingly threaten civilian infrastructure, including airports.

Contingency planning is essential

For the insurance, assistance, and medical evacuation sectors, Gardner’s clearest message concerned operational resilience.

“I think contingency plans are more important than ever now because with the advent of AI and cyberattacks, and the automation of things, you need a backup plan.”

He questioned whether organisations could continue operating if digital systems or internet connectivity failed, highlighting the vulnerability of undersea communications cables.

Despite his warnings, Gardner also reflected warmly on his years living in the Gulf, where his children were born, and the hospitality, landscapes, and cultures of countries affected by instability.