ITIC Global 2026 | Climate change: how is material risk changing for insurance companies and underwriters?

The ITIJ team have been reporting live from ITIC Global in Istanbul this week (1–5 November 2026), sharing the discussions that take place at the conference. Read all reports.

Jonathan Spinoni, Researcher, Euro-Mediterranean Centre on Climate Change (CMCC Foundation)

Spinoni opened the fifth session of ITIC Global 2026 by outlining the major climate-related issues affecting global travel. These include higher temperatures, wildfires, extreme precipitation, flooding, and rising sea levels. He noted that severe weather events were becoming more frequent and intense, while also affecting a wider geographical area, citing extreme heat, and wildfires in more northerly parts of Europe as examples.

Spinoni then explored the wider impact of climate change on travel destinations and tourism trends, including climate-induced migration, the growing popularity of ‘coolcations’, increased travel during shoulder seasons, and the challenges facing winter sports destinations as there is less snowfall.

He also examined the health implications of climate change, explaining that more frequent and severe weather events can increase the risk of injuries, heat-related illnesses, respiratory conditions, water- and food-borne diseases, as well as mental health issues and deaths. He highlighted the growing spread of vector-borne diseases, particularly mosquito-borne illnesses, as changing climatic conditions allow disease-carrying insects to move into new regions. This increased demand for medical care can place significant pressure on healthcare systems and facilities.

For the travel insurance industry, the consequences include rising operational costs and potentially higher claims.

To finish, Spinoni outlined ways organisations could prepare for and respond to increasing climate disasters. He highlighted the Copernicus Emergency Management Service (EMS), which uses geospatial data to support stakeholders throughout all stages of disaster management, from preparedness and emergency response to recovery.

He also emphasised the importance of working towards the UN Sustainable Development Goals through climate mitigation, adaptation, and capacity building. As an example of ongoing initiatives, he highlighted Massachusetts Institute of Technology’s Climate Grand Challenge Flagship Project, which aims to improve preparedness for increasingly severe weather and climate events by assessing current and future risks. Its ultimate goal is to develop a scalable toolkit to help vulnerable populations adapt to intensifying climate risks while supporting the transition to low-carbon resources.

Spinoni concluded by emphasising that preparedness, adaptation, and the ability to respond effectively to a changing climate would be essential in the years ahead.

Alastair Crossley, Growth Director, Travel, AXA Partners

Building on the wider health implications of climate change, Crossley began his presentation by focusing on the geographical spread of infectious diseases. He explained that rising temperatures were expanding mosquito habitats, while increased travel, trade, and urbanisation were connecting endemic regions with destinations previously considered low risk.

Insurers should look beyond individual outbreak seasons and use long-term patterns, real-time epidemiological data, and claims trends to inform risk pricing

He noted that, for the travel insurance industry, this changing risk landscape means more diagnoses, treatment, medical assistance, travel disruption, and potential evacuations entering the claims pathway.

He highlighted the spread of dengue as a “global travel risk signal”, illustrating how shifting disease patterns are creating new health risks for travellers and insurers.

Crossley explained that dengue was no longer a disease confined to tropical regions, but an increasingly widespread travel health risk shaped by shifting climate patterns. He described it as a “dynamic travel risk indicator”.

Using dengue case data, he highlighted the volatility of infectious disease risks and their implications for underwriting. He stressed that insurers should look beyond individual outbreak seasons and use long-term patterns, real-time epidemiological data, and claims trends to inform risk pricing.

Crossley also emphasised the value of claims data in turning epidemiological information into operational intelligence, urging insurers to consider not just claim numbers but also frequency, severity, disruption, and context.

He outlined several practical steps for insurers, including regularly updating risk models using travel volumes and outbreak surveillance, designing cover around the customer journey, and segmenting exposure according to traveller profiles, trip duration, and individual vulnerabilities. He also stressed the importance of linking alerts, triage, provider networks, and claims data.

Prevention, he noted, should be viewed as a “claims strategy”. Pre-travel advice, timely guidance, early triage, and appropriate medical referrals can support earlier intervention, reduce avoidable complications, and help manage claims costs.

Crossley concluded by emphasising that “risk doesn’t automatically have to become loss”, highlighting that earlier risk intelligence can help improve customer outcomes and build more resilient loss ratios. He finished by saying that information, education, and prevention are key to protecting travellers against evolving health risks.

Prevention should also form part of insurers’ approach, and customers should be encouraged to get appropriate vaccinations before travel

Dr Vanya Gant, Founder and Director, Infection Medical Chambers

In the final presentation of this session, Dr Gant began by reflecting on global warming, rising temperatures, and the human impact of continued fossil fuel use and deforestation.

 He discussed the increasing frequency and severity of extreme weather events, as well as the anticipated 2026 El Niño phenomenon, which was projected to be the strongest in 150 years. Pointing to the sharp rise in billion-dollar weather and climate disasters over the past five years, he described climate change as “the greatest global health threat of the 21st century”.

He then explored how infectious disease risks were no longer confined by geography, with climate change shifting where infections occur, when they peak, and the severity of their impact. Pointing to the spread of disease-carrying vectors, he noted that West Nile virus and malaria were appearing in regions where they were not previously a concern.

This expansion also increases the risk of other mosquito-borne diseases, including dengue, chikungunya, and Zika, which he described as Europe's “new summer fevers”. He also highlighted the spread of ticks and the associated risk of diseases such as tick-borne encephalitis.

Dr Gant identified three key climate drivers of health risks: heat, water, and movement. Flooding can increase disease transmission, while rising temperatures can contribute to issues including food-borne infections and dehydration.

He went on to outline the implications for insurers, identifying three key concerns: claim frequency, severity, and timing. As disease patterns shift, familiar destinations may generate more claims, while severe cases could require intensive care or medical evacuation. Later presentation and longer treatment periods may also extend claims beyond the holiday, increasing costs for insurers.

Turning to underwriting and assistance, he stressed that “the cheapest claim is the one prevented”, while the most expensive is often one that has been misdiagnosed. He highlighted the importance of assistance networks having the clinical expertise and intelligence to recognise and manage specific, potentially avoidable infections.

Dr Gant said prevention should also form part of insurers’ approach, and customers should be encouraged to get appropriate vaccinations before travel. He suggested that insurers could offer discounts on certain policies to customers who provide proof of vaccination, recognising them as potentially lower-risk travellers.

Finally, he spoke about the indicators insurers should monitor, stressing the importance of using live, auditable surveillance data to inform underwriting in real time.

The panellists wrapped up the session by concluding that prevention, education, and communication were all key going forward.