Global passenger demand growth slows in June amid geopolitical disruptions, says IATA

The International Air Transport Association (IATA) has reported a modest 2.6% year-on-year increase in global passenger demand for June 2025, marking a slowdown compared to recent months as geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, began to impact international travel patterns.

Total capacity grew by 3.4% year on year, outpacing demand and leading to a slight decline in the global load factor to 84.5%, down 0.6 percentage points from June 2024.

“Demand for air travel grew, but more slowly than in previous months, reflecting the effects of ongoing military conflict in the Middle East,” said IATA Director General Willie Walsh. “Despite the dip, load factors remain near record highs, and with only a modest increase in capacity expected in August, high utilisation rates are likely to continue through the northern hemisphere summer.”

International versus domestic trends

International passenger traffic increased by 3.2% year on year, though capacity growth of 4.2% led to a dip in load factor to 84.4%. Domestic markets saw more subdued growth, rising 1.6% overall, with load factor edging down to 84.7%.

The Middle East was the only region to report a contraction in international revenue passenger kilometres (RPKs), falling by 0.4% year on year due to security concerns affecting key long-haul routes. Traffic on routes between the Middle East and North America dropped by 7%, and those to Europe declined 4.4%.

In contrast, Latin American carriers posted the strongest international growth, at 9.3%, albeit with an 11.8% capacity increase that reduced the region’s load factor to 83.3%. Asia-Pacific airlines also performed robustly with 7.2% growth in international RPKs.

European carriers reported 2.8% growth in international traffic, while North American carriers experienced a slight decline (-0.3%) amid capacity increases.

African airlines also saw a minor drop in demand (-0.3%), with analysts citing intensified competition from European and Middle Eastern carriers as a potential factor.

Domestic market highlights

Among domestic markets, Brazil led with a 14.7% year-on-year rise in RPKs, though this was accompanied by a 1.7-point dip in load factor. China and India also showed solid demand growth at 3.8% and 5.4% respectively. The US domestic market posted only marginal growth (0.1%) – its first positive figure in four months.

Japan’s domestic market stood out with a notable 2.3-point increase in load factor, despite a small 2.9% rise in demand, reflecting improved seat utilisation amid stagnant capacity.

Global air passenger demand rose by 5.0% year on year in May 2025, according to data from IATA.