El Niño and extreme heat put holiday hotspots under pressure as traveller mindsets shift

In a new forecast, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) expects the current El Niño to develop into a “very strong” event and persist until at least February 2027, bringing heightened risks of extreme heat, drought, flooding, and wildfires across different regions. For the travel industry, that could mean more disruption to flights, transport, and tourism infrastructure, alongside increased demand for medical assistance, evacuation, and travel insurance claims.

The warning comes as new analysis from The Data Appeal Company, part of Almaviva Group, suggests extreme heat is already influencing perceptions of Mediterranean holidays. Its Climate Perception Index, tracking Spain, Portugal, France, Italy, and Greece from 2023 to summer 2026, found that France recorded the lowest score this May to July at 77.2, compared with 93.5 for Portugal and 91.6 for Italy.

The research suggests repeated and unusually early heatwaves may be moving beyond temporary disruption and beginning to alter expectations of what a Mediterranean summer should feel like. Italy’s climate perception also slipped 0.9 points year on year, while Spain and Greece showed sharper short-term reactions during periods of extreme heat.

Changing traveller behaviour can translate into changing risk. Heat-related illness, wildfire smoke, flooding, and transport disruption can generate medical treatment, cancellation, curtailment, and repatriation costs.

The health implications are equally significant. Extreme heat increases risks including heat exhaustion and heatstroke, while floods, fires, and disrupted infrastructure can affect access to healthcare and increase exposure to respiratory and infectious diseases.

For destinations and travel companies, the message is increasingly clear: climate resilience is becoming part of the holiday product itself. As extreme weather becomes less predictable, managing traveller expectations, communicating risks, and ensuring appropriate insurance and emergency support could become as important as choosing where and when to travel.