Concern over geopolitical instability rises while climate change remains top risk

This year’s report, AXA’s 11th edition of the annual survey, reveals that in the UK 77% of experts and 55% of the public believe that risks are becoming increasingly interconnected. Geopolitical tensions caused by the situation in the Middle East and the war between Russia and Ukraine have led to a rise in concern about the likelihood of future conflict and the potential ripple effect across security, financial and energy markets and cyber infrastructure.

Climate change remains the most prominent concern for both UK experts and the public, highlighting the urgent need to address its impacts and build resilience. As with geopolitical instability, confidence in the government’s ability to manage and mitigate its effects is low and has dropped significantly from last year, with only 5% of experts responding positively compared with 22% in 2023.

Cybersecurity remains in the top three major risks, with 59% of experts and 68% of the public saying they feel vulnerable to this risk in their daily lives. However, only 12% of experts believe public authorities are prepared to address cyber risks.

More positively, when asked about limiting future risks, 72% of UK experts and 40% of the public said they trusted the insurance industry’s ability to mitigate the consequences of future world crises, signalling an opportunity for insurance companies to demonstrate their commitment to building greater societal resilience. Additionally, 72% of experts and 66% of the public believe the most serious risks can be avoided with an adequate level of prevention and preparedness.

AXA UK Future Risks Report 2024

In total, 3,012 experts and 19,003 people from 50 countries were interviewed for the report, of which 222 experts and 1,000 general population members were from the UK.

UK experts’ top 10 future risks

1. Climate change
2. Geopolitical instability
3. Cybersecurity risks
4. Risks related to artificial intelligence (AI) and big data
5. Social tensions and movements
6. Natural resources and biodiversity risks
7. Energy risks
8. New security threats and terrorism
9. Pandemics and infectious diseases
10. Financial stability risks.

UK public’s top 10 future risks

1. Climate change
2. New security threats and terrorism
3. Cybersecurity risks
4. Social tensions and movements
5. Pandemics and infectious diseases
6. Geopolitical instability
7. Financial stability risks
8. Pollution
9. Energy risks
10. Risks related to AI and big data.