Air passenger demand grows by 3.8% at the start of 2026

Global air passenger demand began 2026 with steady growth, according to the International Air Transport Association (IATA). January demand, measured in revenue passenger kilometres (RPK), rose 3.8% compared with January 2025, while available seat kilometres (ASK) increased 3.5%. The global load factor reached 82%, a record high for the month.

International travel led the growth, with RPK up 5.9% year on year and the load factor hitting 82.5%. Domestic demand was largely flat at 0.1%, reflecting the Lunar New Year shift from January 2025 to February 2026, which typically boosts travel.

Willie Walsh, IATA’s Director General, noted: “The timing of the Lunar New Year partly explains the slightly slower 3.8% expansion in January, but the fundamentals are in place for demand to continue strong growth in 2026. Schedule data, for example, indicate a 5.2% increase in global seat capacity by March, which would be the fastest expansion since April 2024.”

Regionally, Africa and Latin America posted the strongest international growth at 11.7% and 11.4% respectively. Asia Pacific recorded modest growth of 4.4%, while Europe and North America grew 6.3% and 3.4%.

Domestic markets showed mixed results. Brazil led with 10.9% growth, while China, the US, and Australia saw declines. Walsh added: “Average fares are expected to fall in real terms over the course of 2026 … This is despite persistent cost pressures from rising infrastructure charges, onerous regulatory burdens, and the mounting cost of the energy transition.”

The global travel experiences market is set to reach US$342 billion by 2029, according to a new Arival and Phocuswright report.