In 2025, according to UN Tourism, 1.52 billion of the world’s 8.25 billion inhabitants travelled to other countries for at least one night enjoying different cultures, foods and fads, and despite regional disruptions, conflicts and fears of wars, they and their enablers (including travel insurers) are determined to keep those numbers rising.

In Europe, despite confusion about entry rules such as the European Travel Information and Authorisation System (ETIAS) and Entry/Exit System (EES), travellers keep coming, and insurers – pledged to keep their clients safe and solvent – are keeping them moving. Tourism Economics (an Oxford Economics company) has emphasised that destinations that adopt “open visa regimes, traveller-centric policies, and forward-looking infrastructure are projected to be best positioned to capture” over two billion international tourist trips annually by 2030, “despite global economic and geopolitical uncertainty”. 

According to market research entities evaluating the world’s travel trends and capacities, the flourishing travel insurance industry, currently valued at US$30.08 billion globally by Mordor Intelligence, is predicted to hit $62.53 billion by 2031, a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 15.76%. (As many market evaluators don’t necessarily use the same metrics, estimates vary, occasionally quite a bit. But for the most part the direction of those trajectories is consistent.) And though Middle East tension hovers over all forms of travel, Eduardo Santander, CEO of the European Travel Commission, recently told Euronews: “Historically, Europe has been seen as a stable and reliable destination during periods of global uncertainty, and there are early signs that this perception remains intact.”  And that optimism goes beyond Europe, to Asia Pacific, North and South America, less so to the Middle East and Africa.

How do they line up?

Europe, bolstered by Schengen-area medical cover requirements for inbound travellers, is destined to lead the development and acceptance of travel insurance initiatives. That’s one of the reasons Schengen exists and why Europe now controls 41.87% (worth $16 billion according to Mordor Intelligence) of all travel insurance products globally, as calculated by experts who count these things.

The UK, whose travel insurance market has been valued to reach $4.21 billion by 2030 (Mordor Intelligence), remains bullish while Germany, whose statutory health insurance system provides emergency care access in European Union (EU) and European Economic Area (EEA) countries, is projected to reach a more modest $876 million valuation by 2031.

It’s necessary to mention that the firms that derive these valuations don’t all use the same metrics, and some are more buoyant in their assessment than others. Best to look at trends rather than end zones when comparing how nations protect – or don’t – their travelling citizenry. And in an era where threat of wars, regional or otherwise, is so prevalent, predicting travel trends five years ahead is a high-wire act.

In Asia Pacific (which analysts see as the fastest growing region for incoming tourism) the value of travel insurance products is expected to grow at a prodigious rate of 19.37% CAGR through 2031, according to Mordor Intelligence, with the markets fuelled by rising disposable incomes, expanding middle class populations, and demands by Chinese and Japanese travellers for more and better health/safety and emergency plans. In addition, increasing waves
of Indian travellers (mostly interested in business and education travel) are stepping up their demands for more inclusive products and services.

The flourishing travel insurance industry, currently valued at $30.08 billion globally, is ‎predicted to hit $62.53 billion by 2031, a CAGR of 15.7%

Travel insurance products for the affluent North and South American markets are due for a strong post-Covid-19 surge, with 50% of US travellers now insuring every trip, and financial loss protection (cancellation or interruption) being purchased by 41% of buyers, according to Aon Affinity Travel Practice.

In addition, with 60% of Gen Z and 54% of US millennials buying travel insurance, the long-term trend in this decidedly buoyant industry is estimated to go from $8.91 billion in 2026 to $18.40 billion in 2031 – a 15.62% CAGR. Sales are reported to have surged by 15% year on year, with coverage extending to over 148 million Americans. Meanwhile, In Brazil, the emphasis on travel insurance purchasing is toward regional travel and peak holiday periods, while in Canada travellers are expanding their cancellation cover, but remain firmly rooted in medical/healthcare coverage, which their governments (one for each province and territory) limit to in-country services only, thus leaving the 40% of Canadian travellers whose main travel target is the US to deal with the ravenous fees of American hospitals. Consequently, medical benefits in most plans top out at CA$5 million – CA$10 million (Bonafide Research & Marketing, which specialises in tracking the Canadian travel insurance market, values it at US$0.82 billion in 2024 growing to US$1.75 billion by 2030).

As for the fourth region in the global line-up – the Middle East and Africa – World Travel & Tourism Council (WTTC) and Oxford Economics modelling shows permanent market share losses as travellers develop new destination preferences and booking patterns. As may be self- evident, tourism demand proves sticky – once travellers discover alternative destinations delivering satisfaction, they rarely return to previously favoured locations merely because conflict ended.

Reports in March from WTTC claimed the Middle East’s tourism sector was incurring losses of at least $600 million per day in international visitor spending due to the conflicts in that area. And according to the World Bank, prior to the Middle East conflicts, tourism had served as a mainstay of the region’s economic growth, contributing 6.7% to the Middle East’s total gross domestic product (GDP) and 8.1% to North Africa’s. And, before 2020, destinations like Bahrain, Saudia Arabia, and Oman experienced triple-digit increases in travel receipts, underscoring the industry’s potential contribution to the area.

What product lines are travellers buying?

According to Mordor Intelligence, single-trip policies continue to dominate and hold 46.47% of market share sales worldwide, while long- or extended-stay policies are expected to grow by 19.84% CAGR between 2026 and 2031. As for distribution channels, intermediaries (banks, travel agents, brokers, agents) hold just over 51.24% of market share, while aggregators (such as online multi-product comparison sites) are on track to record a 21.87% CAGR growth through 2031.

Who is buying?

By end users, family travellers accounted for 34.84% of the travel insurance market in 2025, while business travellers are expected to grow their share at a 23.37% CAGR to 2031. Not to be neglected, the growth of insurtech-inspired ‘parametric’ options (estimated to grow at 23.27% through 2031), have caught the attention of Gen Zs and tech-savvy travellers comfortable with artificial intelligence (AI)-driven recommendations. Who wouldn’t like to be covered for loss caused by six hours of rain on a Miami beach day?

Many of these concoctions are inherently designed for backpackers, digital nomads, and adventure travellers whose itineraries are not measured out day by day. And, given the principle that ‘anything can happen’, it’s nice to know that once you arrive at the ballpark and find the game has been rescheduled, you can file a claim on the spot and have a refund sent directly to your digital wallet without having to file ‘a bunch of papers’. Or, taken to a different direction, if rainfall doesn’t exceed more than 100mm in a specific region during growing season, the insured farmer could receive an automatic lump sum payout whether he suffered a profit loss or not (thanks to Matador Network for that exposé).

While market research analysts can provide estimates of what is possible given certain formulae, store owners usually have a better feel for which products are moving and which are getting stale. The story told at point of sale doesn’t lie. We thus asked Jackie Mondelli, Chief Marketing Officer at Squaremouth, a leading American online travel insurance comparison site, for a ground-level view of evolving purchase trends. Her responses were sobering.

Tourism demand proves sticky – once travellers discover alternative destinations ‎delivering satisfaction, they rarely return to previously favoured locations merely ‎because conflict ended ‎

“Yes, there has been a trend toward predominantly medical coverage products,” she said, “but please note, the average premium per (medical) policy is one fifth the rate of a comprehensive plan.” And, since Covid-19, “we’ve seen our sales volume slowly drift toward medical-only policies, increasing from 28% to 34% of sales over the last four years. These, however, are lower-cost products and will struggle to drive meaningful revenue growth for the industry, especially if they aren’t bringing in new buyers.”

She emphasised that replacement of comprehensive-plan travel purchases would result in a net loss in revenue and pointed out that in 2020, 75.2% of sales had cancellation benefits, but by 2026 that was down to 65.9%. In addition, she noted that “the average comprehensive policy costs $426, which insures over $7,500 in trip costs, compared to $81 from a 15-day travel medical plan.

“All said,” stated Mondelli, “with the future of the industry in mind, the biggest revenue drivers remain where they’ve always been: older travellers, longer trips, and comprehensive coverage.”

It’s hard to argue with that.