Canadian travel futures beyond Covid – still tepid
Milan Korcok takes a look at a recent study from the Conference Board of Canada to assess how travel attitudes of Canadians are changing
For Canada’s besieged travel insurance industry – approaching CA$1 billion in premium sales before Covid hit (according to the Conference Board of Canada (CBoC)) – the re-opening of the border to the US has been a seductive lure; now you see it, now you don’t. For a nation that took more than 27 million trips to the US in 2019 (says Statistics Canada), almost half of them for holidays, recreation or shopping (out of a total population of 38 million), that’s a major re-adjustment of leisure activity.
And for travel insurers, whose products – of one form or another – cover over three-quarters of Canadian adults on outbound trips, that represents a potentially lethal belt tightening (a CBoC 2018 survey reports that 78 per cent of Canadians over 18 were covered by travel insurance on their last outbound trip, and 84.5 per cent of 55- to 64-year old cohorts reported such coverage).
But, if insurers were hoping that re-opening the 5,000+ mile border to non-essential land traffic would immediately revitalise their trade, a recent survey by CBoC quashes hopes that business will get back to normal any time soon regardless of any border easing – and the border still remains in lockdown for non-essential travel, while air travel and commercial road traffic between North America’s two neighbours has not been similarly restricted during the pandemic.
Vaccines and travel insurance
Though 87 per cent of CBoC survey respondents say they miss traveling, three-quarters say they won’t take a trip out of Canada until a vaccine is available to them. Fifty-three percent say they won’t even travel within Canada until they get their jabs, though 52 per cent stated that the inclusion of Covid-specific health insurance coverage increases their willingness to travel right now. In addition, one quarter say they do not plan to get vaccinated.
The promise of vaccine distribution anytime soon is, however, elusive. Anita Anand, Canada’s Covid Procurement Minister is pushing for six million doses of the vaccine by the end of March, but another government source told the National Post newspaper that the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines are expected to be delivered by the end of September and, as in the US and Europe, the highest priorities are for healthcare workers and residents of nursing homes.
Ironically, a news report from Florida stirred consternation in Canadian media when it quoted Florida’s Governor Ron DeSantis announcing that snowbirds – including Canadians – would qualify for vaccines while visiting the state. So far this winter, Florida has been spared the severe lockdowns that have encumbered New York, California, and much of the Midwest. Aside from masking and social distancing, life in Florida has returned to a relative ‘new normal’ and some Canadian snowbirds are not to be denied (see boxout). And though Canadians returning home are still subject to quarantine measures, Florida does not require them, though it insists on appropriate masking (indoors) or in crowds, and social distancing measures.
Canadian travel sentiments
Travel to the US over the past four years has been a touchy subject for many Canadians, who have been subject to universally negative media coverage of the political climate in the US, and this has been exacerbated over 2020 by daily reports of Covid ‘surges’ in various parts of the US.
According to the CBoC survey, 83 per cent of respondents said they were extremely or very concerned about Covid exposure while travelling in the US. This share has since dropped to 69 per cent and, when asked if the border was open, if flights were more available and if time and money was not an issue, 59 per cent still said they would ‘absolutely not’ travel to the US while 21 per cent said they would ‘probably not’. To put that in perspective, 55 per cent were also extremely concerned about travel to Asia, Europe, and somewhat less so to Mexico and the Caribbean.
What does this situation portend for the future months of travel product producers?
Just 36 per cent of Canadians intend to take an overnight leisure trip in what remains of this winter. Of those who have selected a destination, just one in 10 are planning to leave the country, and the overall outbound leisure travel is forecast to fall to just 1.2 million trips between November (2020) through to April 2021 – that’s less than 10 per cent of the activity recorded last winter.
And for those who do travel, it’s not going to be without some fear: 94 per cent say they are ‘extremely’ or ‘somewhat’ concerned about Covid exposure on public transportation; 91 to 92 per cent are similarly concerned about travel in airplanes or taxis, theme parks, or indoor attractions; 87 per cent at their accommodation property; and only 75 per cent on the beach or outdoors.
As the survey concludes, if there is to be post-Covid travel recovery, it’s going to be tough sledding.